Assembly Election Survey: Preparation strategy is being made for the Lok Sabha elections to be held in 2024. Before the general elections, assembly elections are to be held in five states in the country, whose tenure is going to end in December and January. Among these five states, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are Hindi speaking states and are also very important from the point of view of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. At present, Congress is in power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan while BJP is in power in Madhya Pradesh. In these states, massive rallies are being taken out regarding the elections to be held in the next two months. Meanwhile, a survey was conducted to find out who is likely to form the government here. Who will return to power and who will have to be disappointed?
Let us tell you that this survey has been done by IANS agency Polstrat, which was conducted between September 1 and September 13. According to the survey data, there does not seem to be any change of power in the assembly elections of these three states to be held at the end of the year. However, there is every possibility of fluctuations in the seats of parties in the states. Out of these three states, Rajasthan has a total of 200 assembly seats, Chhattisgarh has 90 seats and Madhya Pradesh has 230 assembly seats. Let us see state wise which party is expected to get how many seats.
BJP’s seats increased in Rajasthan but the government is of Congress
At present there is a Congress government in Rajasthan under the leadership of Ashok Gehlot. Which had won 100 out of total 200 seats in the 2018 assembly elections and fell short of majority by only one seat. However, after the elections, it was successful in forming a government in alliance with BSP. Whereas BJP got 73 seats and BSP got 6 seats. At the same time, if we talk about this survey, Congress can return to power here again. According to the survey, Congress is expected to get 97 to 105 seats in the 2023 elections. Whereas the main opposition party of the state, BJP is expected to gain 16 to 26 seats this time as compared to the last elections. In the survey, BJP has got 89 to 97 seats and BSP has got 0 to 4 seats.
Will BJP get full majority this time in Madhya Pradesh?
In the 2018 assembly elections of MP, there was a close contest between BJP and Congress and for the first time in 15 years, no party got majority. Couldn’t find it. However, Congress came to power due to having the maximum number of seats, but after a year, the reversal brought BJP back to power. In the 2018 elections in Madhya Pradesh, which has 230 assembly seats, Congress won 114 seats and BJP won 109 seats. Was found. Whereas Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party got 2 seats.
If we look at the survey data, BJP government seems to be formed in Madhya Pradesh. According to the survey, BJP may win 116 to 124 seats. At the same time, Congress is expected to get 100 to 108 seats. It has come to light that BJP will get 42 percent vote share in the state and Congress will get 40 percent vote share.
Bhupesh Baghel’s government again in Chhattisgarh?
There was a change of power in Chhattisgarh after 15 years in the 2018 assembly elections. After sitting in opposition for so many years, Congress got a landslide victory. Congress had got 68 seats out of total 90 assembly seats in that election. Whereas BJP had fallen from 49 seats to 15 seats and here also the BSP alliance won 5 seats. Now, according to the survey that came before this year’s elections, Congress is expected to get a good lead in the state. The party is shown to get 62 seats. BJP may gain 12 seats, in the survey the party has got 27 seats. Whereas in the state, Congress is expected to have 44 percent vote share and BJP 38 percent vote share. The sample size of the survey conducted in Chhattisgarh is 3672.